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Predicting election results using Twitter & Facebook statistics is an intriguing idea, but possibly not too accurate. Politwitter trys to look at more than just the leader or party follower totals, but a range of criteria including growth rates and sentiment. Even before the election started the Liberals were ahead on Twitter & Facebook, not much has changed. The NDP growth rates have greatly increased the past 2 weeks but wont catch the Liberals in most measures. The so called "NDP surge" in traditional polls has potentially thrown these numbers out the window. So more than being a predictor of who will win the election, these numbers reflect who won the social media game.

It's also possible that tradional phone polling doesn't take the youth vote into account or those with mobile-phones. Social media might be scewed towards younger voters whereas the opposite for polls.

There are 25 items below, 5 points are given to the winner and partial points given to the runners-up.

100 POSSIBLE POINTS

  1. Liberal 85/100
  2. NDP 63/100
  3. Conservative 58/100
  4. Green 44/100

item conservative liberal ndp green winner

1) Total Followers

total number of Twitter followers as of April 27th of all candidates & MPs for each party
236,678322,190158,07940,898

2) Follower Increase

Increase in followers over the previous 3 weeks
22,46050,69723,02112,035

3) Follower Increase Percentage

10%16%15%29%

4) Leader Followers

Twitter followers of the party leaders
132,96497,20992,74623,432

5) Leader Follower Increase

increase in leaders Twitter followers over the past 3 weeks
10,41611,08116,5754,498

6) Leader Follower Increase Percent

8%11%18%19%

7) Party Positive Sentiment

Overall percent of tweets that are positive compared to negative. Tweets mentioning MPs & candidates from each party
79.1%83.6%84.5%83.9%

8) Leader Positive Sentiment

percentage of positive tweets mentioning a leader
77%80%86%0%

9) Partisan Hashtag Usage

Some hashtags like #ndp or #roft are partisan. Which partisan hashtags had the most usage. View a list of hashtags.
42,99535,55031,09810,981

10) Leader Mentions

How many times a leader is @mentioned in tweets
106,18337,05033,4289,353

11) Total Retweets

Retweets of tweets by party candidates and MPs.
11,95027,18511,3918,811

12) Total Replies

Replies to candidates and MPs.
14,36919,7215,6843,856

13) Facebook Likes

Combined total of Facebook likes of all candidates
85,480203,498117,47318,705

14) Leader Facebook Likes

53,82369,15162,94810,783

15) Facebook Likes Increase

Increase in Facebook likes in the past 3 weeks
11,71042,72840,8756,716

16) Facebook Likes Increase Percentage

14%21%35%36%

17) Party Platform Sentiment

Overall sentiment towards each parties platform on Twitter
party date promise total tweets pos sentiment neg sentiment adjusted retweets mps news facebook
libApr 2Liberal Platform link1805580600.91112211845116
ndpApr 10NDP Platform link1104220550.8705441639
conApr 8Conservative Platform link8061341220.52680321432
greApr 7Green Platform link10622100.6951005
50%90%74%75%

18) Average Promise Sentiment

Politwitter tracked the Tweeters and sentiment for election promisers made by each party. This is the average sentiment of all promises. view Twitter reaction to election promises
50%69%72%75%

19) Total Promise Popularity

Volume of tweets mentioning a parties promises
3,1746,7411,963124

20) Leading Swing Ridings

Politwitter ran stats on 33 swing ridings, using Twitter to predict the outcome. How many of these ridings is each party leading. view swing riding page
91481

21) Leading Swing Riding Growth

Most growth in Twitter followers in the swing ridings
5%9%6%10%

22) Most Engaged Candidates

Politwitter has a stats page ranking the most engaged canidates on Twitter. How many candidates does each party have in the top 10 most engaged list.
2422

23) Most Popular Candidates

Number of candidates in the top 10 most popular list.
3411

24) Candidates on Twitter

total number of canidates and MPs on Twitter
189230182131

25) MPs in News

number of mentions of MPs in the news.
5,1103,4152,1740
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